Griffin on Tech: What Trump 2.0 means for the world of tech
If you own shares in US-listed tech companies or cryptocurrencies, you probably noticed a little bump in your portfolio value yesterday following Donald Trump’s incredible comeback to reclaim the US presidency.
Which may have left you feeling somewhat conflicted if Wednesday night's events horrified you. The implications of Trump’s win for everything from the war in Ukraine to emissions reduction efforts, to immigration policy are potentially huge.
Even in the tech space, his ability to issue executive orders, in tandem with Republican control of the Senate and House of Representatives, could make for some very eventful years ahead for the tech sector.
The Nasdaq rose because Trump appealed to business on a platform of deregulation, tax reductions and cutting red tape, which is music to the ears of tech companies and their investors.
Trump has also become a crypto fanboy over the last year, shown enthusiasm for light-touch regulation of AI, and formed a bromance with Elon Musk which looks set to colour his approach to not just tech policy, but his presidency in general.
“America is a nation of builders, soon you will be free to build,” Musk tweeted following Trump’s victory speech in West Palm Beach, Florida. But Trump won’t necessarily usher in a return to the laissez-faire approach to tech regulation that accompanied the Web 2.0 era. His views and policies on all things tech are literally all over the place, influenced as much by what powerful elites around him are recommending, and personal grudges, as much as what he thinks he needs to do to make America great again.
A lot has been written about this in the last 24 hours, so I want to devote this week’s column to some of the best commentary I could find coming out of the US analysing areas of tech where Trump’s authority will likely be felt…
Crypto crackdown averted?
The Securities and Exchange Commission under Gary Gensler has been attempting to assume tight regulatory control of the digital assets market, concerned that another FTX-type collapse could hurt consumers. But all that could be about to change given Trump’s recent u-turn on crypto.
From Fast Company: “According to the investment firm Jefferies, ‘there is a clear commitment from the Trump campaign to deregulate the crypto industry.’ Trump said in August that he would fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ‘on day one; Gensler has been a vocal opponent to the crypto sector.”
Tariffs on tech
Trump effectively strangled the export of advanced technology to China during his first term as US President, and the Biden administration continued the theme. But the tech sector avoided the tariffs on goods imported from China that were slapped on other goods. The tech sector argued that a tax on smartphones and other tech made in China would be really bad for the digital economy.
So any move to apply tariffs to tech imports would be painful for US tech companies.
From Ars Technica: “Any drastic spike in pricing could radically reshape markets for popular tech products at a time when tariffs and political tensions increasingly block US business growth into China. Diverting resources to decouple from China could disrupt companies' abilities to fund more US innovation, risking Americans' access to the latest tech at affordable prices.”
Meta animosity
Meta’s development of open-source large language models seemed to me to be one of the better things the company has done. Trump, who really hates Meta and Zuckerberg over being banned from the platform and his impression that they have suppressed conservative voices on Facebook, may have different ideas.
From The Information: “Trump could crack down on open-source AI—most obviously Meta’s Llama models—to ensure countries like China don’t use it. Such a crackdown might undermine the investor bullishness about AI’s potential to boost Meta’s ad business, which has helped lift the company’s stock in recent months.”
Anti-trust action
Some of the big US Government lawsuits against the likes of Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Amazon were initiated during Trump’s last term. So while he’s pro-business, he doesn’t like monopoly power.
From Bloomberg: “Industry leaders could see a reprise of the tense relations during Trump’s first term, when he clashed with some tech executives including Amazon.com Inc. A second Trump administration may be friendlier to business tie-ups, but is likely to keep up the aggressive pursuit of antitrust cases targeting Big Tech.”
Revoking the TikTok ban
Chinese company ByteDance is running out of time to stave off a federal ban on its availability in the US unless it radically changes its ownership structure. But the company may now have an unlikely friend coming to its aid.
From the Washington Post: “While Trump as president tried to force TikTok to be sold or banned, he has since voiced reservations about a law passed by Congress to do just that, which he said poses ‘real First Amendment problems’. The comments could shape the outcome of those ongoing cases.
Some suggest Trump’s opposition to the TikTok ban relates directly to his animosity towards Meta, TikTok’s big competitor.
AI regulation
Trump’s mate Elon Musk has said that the development of AI is moving too quickly and could pose an existential threat to humanity. But he’s also just built the world’s biggest AI supercomputer at xAI. So what will Musk be advising the president to do about AI?
From Fortune: “Trump is no fan of regulating AI companies, and the same can be said for backers like venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. Trump’s campaign manifesto included a pledge to repeal Biden’s 2023 executive order on AI, which was a first step towards regulating against multiple AI risks—according to Trump, these were ‘Radical Leftwing ideas’.”
Will AUKUS survive?
Trump beefed up military spending in his first term but isn’t a fan of multilateral military arrangements like NATO. So is the AUKUS pact between Australia, the UK and the US likely to survive? The pact centres around Australia developing nuclear submarines to patrol the South Pacific, but Pillar 2 of AUKUS covers advanced technologies and New Zealand is considering joining Pillar 2 to have a hand in accessing them.
From The Interpreter: “Significant questions about the future of AUKUS – in particular the nuclear-powered submarine program – already exist, and Trump’s capricious approach to governance could further complicate the partnership. While AUKUS has rapidly expanded its workstreams, including cyber, quantum technology, and hypersonic capabilities, maintaining this momentum requires a stable and committed US leadership. A Trump administration, distracted by domestic concerns or shifting foreign policy priorities, might struggle to provide the necessary support.”
Anything is possible
Trump is known to change his mind so all bets are off on all of the above. He also leaned heavily on businessmen and tech leaders to fund his election campaign so will have to repay that support, which may influence his tech-related policies. The markets may have welcomed Trump’s win, but he is volatility personified, so the techg world needs to be ready to expect anything.
